Demographic Shift: Fewer Births, Changing Futures

Reflecting on the past quarter-century, I find myself at a significant juncture, standing 25 years removed from the dawn of the new millennium and equally distant from the year 2050. The passage of time offers a unique perspective, allowing me to examine not only my personal journey but also the broader demographic patterns that have shaped and continue to shape our society.

A quarter-century ago, I was single, living in the vibrant landscape of the San Francisco Bay Area. My mother was still alive, a constant source of wisdom and encouragement in my life. Today, she has passed, and I am now married to Kasia—the love of my life. Together, we have been blessed with three wonderful sons, each shaping our lives in ways we could never have imagined. Looking forward, I see the inevitable march of time: the natural process of aging, the eventual retirement from my position at Saint Louis University, the possibility of becoming a grandfather, and, ultimately, joining my parents in death. These milestones, both past and future, are deeply personal, yet they are also reflective of broader demographic transitions that unfold across generations.

As a demographer, I cannot help but analyze my own life through the lens of demographic patterns and societal shifts. Demography seeks to uncover overarching trends in human behavior, particularly in relation to marriage, fertility, and migration. These life events are far more than individual choices; they are shaped by an intricate interplay of social norms, economic realities, and cultural expectations. In this inaugural discussion, I focus on births and the demographic realities currently facing the United States.

Through this series, I aim to examine what we truly understand about demographic patterns and to what extent our interpretations are shaped by ideology, theoretical frameworks, or personal experiences. By dissecting the complexities of demographic transitions, I hope to provide insights into the forces shaping our collective future.

Reflecting on my youth, I remember dreaming of a future where I would marry young and raise a large family—perhaps as many as ten children. This aspiration was largely shaped by my mother, who often encouraged me to embrace the idea of having a big family. However, as I progressed through college, my priorities began to shift. Education became my central focus, naturally delaying both marriage and parenthood. Instead of spending my weekends at bars, I found myself in Architecture Hall with a small group of friends, studying late into the night. I had discovered that life offered more than dating and socializing; I had discovered the transformative power of education. This personal shift reflects a broader societal trend: as educational attainment rises, particularly among women, marriage and childbearing tend to occur later in life.

Research consistently shows a strong link between higher levels of education and lower fertility rates. As individuals pursue advanced degrees and career ambitions, they often delay starting families, prioritizing professional growth and personal development. The financial and social costs of early childbearing become more evident, prompting many to postpone or even reconsider traditional timelines for marriage and parenthood.

Additionally, the rise of educational pairing—the tendency for individuals to marry partners with similar educational backgrounds—has become more pronounced in recent decades. This trend reinforces socioeconomic stratification, as educational attainment remains a key determinant of economic stability and social mobility. Studies suggest that these patterns shape a wide range of demographic behaviors, influencing not only marriage and fertility decisions but also geographic mobility and economic opportunity.

The interplay of education, socioeconomic factors, and cultural influences profoundly shapes our demographic choices. Recognizing these patterns is essential, not only for individuals making personal life decisions but also for policymakers striving to address challenges related to population dynamics, economic sustainability, and social well-being.

My personal story serves as a compelling example of how marriage and fertility decisions evolve in response to educational attainment. Education functions as a powerful mediating force, reshaping fertility patterns and family planning decisions in significant ways. As individuals dedicate years to acquiring knowledge and professional skills, they develop a more nuanced understanding of parenthood, its demands, and the long-term sacrifices it entails. Additionally, because the pursuit of education requires substantial time and resources, many people naturally delay marriage and childbearing until they have achieved a certain level of financial and emotional security.

This delay often results in parents who are more mature and better prepared to provide for their children, both materially and emotionally. In this way, education does more than influence career trajectories and economic prospects—it fundamentally alters the way individuals approach family life. As a result, demographic trends shift, impacting everything from population growth rates to workforce participation and economic stability.

The United States has experienced a notable decline in fertility rates over the past decade and a half, reflecting broader demographic shifts. In 2007, prior to the Great Recession, the national fertility rate stood at 69.29 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. By 2023, this rate is projected to decrease to 54.51 per 1,000 women, a significant reduction.

Missouri mirrors this national trend, with the state’s fertility rate falling from 68.88 births per 1,000 women in 2007 to 55.8 in 2033. Examining specific regions, major counties in Missouri have followed suit: St. Louis County, St. Charles County, Franklin County and Jefferson County saw their fertility rates drop from 64.11 in 2007 to 51.13 in 2033. Similarly, in the Kansas City area, Jackson and Clay counties experienced a decline from 74.75 to 56.07 per 1,000 women over the same period.

A deeper analysis of these trends reveals significant differences across racial and ethnic groups. One of the most pronounced shifts has been the decline in fertility rates among white non-Hispanic women. Nationally, this group’s fertility rate has fallen from 60.71 births per 1,000 women in 2007 to 51.07 in 2023. In Missouri, the trend is even more pronounced, with white non-Hispanic mothers experiencing a decline from 65.49 in 2007 to 54.21 in 2023. This reduction has resulted in a substantial drop in the number of births. In Missouri, births to white non-Hispanic mothers decreased from 62,222 in 2007 to a projected 48,538 by 2033—a figure that not only marks a decline from the 2007 peak but also falls below the 1995 total of 59,423 births. These trends reflect broader societal changes, including delayed family formation, evolving economic pressures, and shifting cultural attitudes toward marriage and childbearing.

In contrast, the Hispanic population has seen substantial growth in births, contributing to a demographic shift in Missouri and the nation at large. Nationally, births to Hispanic mothers have risen from 679,768 in 1995 to over one million (1,004,141) in recent years. Missouri has followed this trajectory, with births to Hispanic mothers increasing from 1,288 in 1995 to a projected 5,518 by 2033. This growth corresponds to a fertility rate of 72.94 per 1,000 women, significantly higher than the 54.21 observed among white non-Hispanic mothers in the state.

These contrasting fertility patterns underscore a fundamental transformation in Missouri’s demographic composition. The decline in white non-Hispanic births and the rise in Hispanic fertility rates carry profound implications for the state’s future—affecting school enrollment trends, workforce demographics, and long-term population sustainability. As birth rates continue to evolve, policymakers, educators, and economic planners must anticipate and adapt to these changes to ensure a stable and prosperous future.

The demographic story for the United States and Missouri is clear: fewer babies, particularly among white non-Hispanic women. But this is just one part of the story. The next chapters involve mortality, migration, and marriage—each playing a crucial role in shaping the country’s demographic future.

As I continue this series, I invite readers to reflect on their own experiences with marriage, fertility, and migration. How have these demographic forces shaped your life? To what extent do personal choices align with broader societal trends? By exploring these questions, we gain deeper insight into the intricate relationship between individual decisions and the demographic landscape shaping our collective future.

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